Sales
Definition
Deal probability is an estimated percentage chance of closing each opportunity in the pipeline. Used for weighted pipeline forecasting: probability × deal value summed across pipeline = weighted forecast. Probabilities are typically assigned per sales stage based on historical win rates.
Key points
- Early-stage opps: 10-20% probability
- Mid-stage (proposal sent): 40-60% probability
- Late-stage (verbal commitment): 70-90% probability
- Reps sometimes override stage defaults with rep-specific probability
Example
A $50k opp at the 'Proposal Sent' stage with 50% probability contributes $25k to weighted pipeline forecast.
Related terms
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